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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 2:40 pm 
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Its going to go down.

Soon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... h-and-gold



Bank of America: Markets Are in a 'Twilight Zone' and It's Time to Hold More Cash and Gold
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by Julie Verhage
6:33 AM MDT
May 18, 2015
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Meet the Bear Hungry for a Bull Market Correction

A warning for investors
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In a note sent out this morning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a warning for investors:

Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization...until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Most likely catalysts: Consumer, Rates, A-shares, Speculation, High Yield.

The note also highlights two interesting disconnects in the markets:

Investors say they are optimistic, but there is a high level of cash on the sidelines U.S. stock prices are at record highs, but equity funds are seeing outflows

Regarding the first point, one of Bank of America's surveys showed investor sentiment as being “risk-on," which it says is normally associated with less cash on the sidelines.

To the second point, the note says U.S. equity funds have suffered $100 billion of outflows in 2015 while the S&P 500 is near all-time highs, which its data says isn't exactly typical.

The analysts led by Michael Hartnett attribute this to clients favoring European and Japanese equities at the expense of the U.S and that buying from those not captured in flow data (sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and central banks) could be what's giving U.S. equity indices a boost.

The note hints that that you actually ought to sell in May and go away, at least for certain asset classes.

The summer months offer a lose-lose proposition for risk assets: either the macro improves and the Fed gets to hike, which will at least temporarily cause volatility; or more ominously for consensus positioning, the macro does not recover, in which case EPS downgrades drag risk-assets lower.

:drevil:

:uhh:

_________________
HighHardOne wrote:
I don't know why I think this, and I sure don't want to find out personally, but I imagine sex with Schmick as being how John Hobbes described life outside society as "poor, nasty, brutish and short."


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 2:58 pm 
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If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.



:nono:

Quote:
The concept is embodied in a measure known as the Q ratio developed by James Tobin, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at Yale University who died in 2002. According to Tobin’s Q, equities in the U.S. are valued about 10 percent above the cost of replacing their underlying assets -- higher than any time other than the Internet bubble and the 1929 peak.


Learn it. :yes:

Love it. :bananar:

Lose it. :cry:



FAGGITS. :masshole:

_________________
HighHardOne wrote:
I don't know why I think this, and I sure don't want to find out personally, but I imagine sex with Schmick as being how John Hobbes described life outside society as "poor, nasty, brutish and short."


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:12 pm 
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Location: Watching you from an overpass.
Hey citizen;

I'd just like to point out that CalPers is heavily funded in equities and local government munis and bonds and our estimation of payout rates that use a baseline of an 8% annual growth rate across the board is very conservative and accurate and owed to us, the peace officers of California.

95% of my last 3 years of base pay plus free healthcare is the least you retards can do for us.


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:40 pm 
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Club America wrote:
Quote:
If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.



:nono:

Quote:



FAGGITS. :masshole:



Wow it's full of kiddy porn here in your dome.


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 5:31 pm 
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Location: They cant see what they see.
Masshole wrote:
Club America wrote:
Quote:
If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.



:nono:

Quote:



FAGGITS. :masshole:





Wow it's full of kiddy porn here in your dome.



you are an undeveloped little boy?

How very PSU of you.

you fucking retard.

You kick your own ass everytime you log on. :banana:

No wonder the british almost won. :nono:

_________________
HighHardOne wrote:
I don't know why I think this, and I sure don't want to find out personally, but I imagine sex with Schmick as being how John Hobbes described life outside society as "poor, nasty, brutish and short."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 8:32 am 
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Posts: 6374
Club America wrote:
Masshole wrote:
Club America wrote:
Quote:
If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.



:nono:

Quote:



FAGGITS. :masshole:



Nice job trying to deflect but you know you like little kids.


Wow it's full of kiddy porn here in your dome.



you are an undeveloped little boy?

How very PSU of you.

you fucking retard.

You kick your own ass everytime you log on. :banana:

No wonder the british almost won. :nono:


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 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 9:49 am 
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Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:17 pm
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Location: They cant see what they see.
Masshole wrote:
Club America wrote:
Masshole wrote:
Club America wrote:
Quote:
If you sold every share of every company in the U.S. and used the money to buy up all the factories, machines and inventory, you’d have some cash left over. That, in a nutshell, is the math behind a bear case on equities that says prices have outrun reality.



:nono:

Quote:



FAGGITS. :masshole:



Nice job trying to deflect but you know you like little kids.


Wow it's full of kiddy porn here in your dome.



you are an undeveloped little boy?

How very PSU of you.

you fucking retard.

You kick your own ass everytime you log on. :banana:

No wonder the british almost won. :nono:

_________________
HighHardOne wrote:
I don't know why I think this, and I sure don't want to find out personally, but I imagine sex with Schmick as being how John Hobbes described life outside society as "poor, nasty, brutish and short."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 10:15 am 
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Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:17 pm
Posts: 9431
Invest in guns & ammo. :banana:


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