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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:19 am 
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As we all know, 370 Economists got together and authored a letter stating among other things that Trump's Economic proposals would be disastrous to the US economy. This article was quoted by gnu here prior to the election.

Since the election, market forces appear to be disagreeing with all 370 Economists even though 8 of them are Nobel Laureates! I'm sure this is just a temporary flash in the pan of post-election excitement, right? Probably. I mean, how could 370 economists be wrong?

In true .net fashion let's chronicle changes in the economy starting Nov 9, 2016.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:21 am 
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All US stock indexes trade at all-time highs with Energy leading the way at +2%

Quote:
The S&P 500 topped its all-time intraday high of 2,193.81, hit on Aug. 15, during midday trade. The energy sector traded 2 percent higher to lead all sectors higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 75 points to hit a record high, with Apple and IBM contributing the most gains. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.77 percent, hitting a new record high.

The Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap 400 indexes, which track small and mid cap stocks, respectively, also hit record highs.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:22 am 
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Deutsche Bank: Trump Could Push the U.S. Economy and Stock Markets to New Records

Quote:
It's looking more likely that President-elect Donald Trump will preside over a continuing U.S. expansion that could take its place as the longest among American business cycles, according to Deutsche Bank AG. And Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Bianco predicts that by the time the real estate mogul takes office in January, the S&P 500 Index will eclipse 2,250.

Investors are under-appreciating the "much higher chance now of a long lasting economic expansion that rivals the 10 year U.S. record," the strategist writes "We're more confident now that the S&P will reach 2,500 in 2018 before suffering its next bear market."

The longest U.S. expansion on record stretched from 1991 until 2001, a span of 120 months. That streak will be broken if the American economy makes it until 2019 without a recession.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:24 am 
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Stocks Near Record Highs, Dollar Strongest in 13 Years

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:27 am 
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:44 pm 
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Quote:
The three major indexes closed at record highs simultaneously for the first time since this past summer. The Dow Jones industrial average rose around 88 points, surpassing previous closing and intraday records of 18,923.06 and 18,934.05, respectively.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:22 pm 
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Cant get crusty feet o bluegums out of there fast enough.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:49 pm 
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Carrier decides to keep manufacturing plant in Indiana. Couple thousand jobs [obama] created or saved [/obama].

link

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:53 pm 
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Premature.

It's nearly 2 months until The Don assumes office.

It would be many more months (or years) before the effect of his program is really known and felt.


Pom poms -----> down.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:07 pm 
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Gnu has been pretty silent of late...


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:08 pm 
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It's premature to credit Trump with making a few phone calls and talking Carrier into reversing a decision they made public 9 months earlier? Ooookay.

You're a little too eager to prove your outlandish bullshit right, pops. Some credit is due the Trumpster here. Don't be a whiny bitch about it.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:16 pm 
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The dollar was on pace for its best month against the yen since 2009 as signs of U.S. economic strength spurred bets that monetary tightening will accelerate.



[Poptard]Even though the dollar is gaining value it is premature to say the dollar is gaining value. [poptard]

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:02 pm 
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HPG wrote:
You're a little too eager to prove your outlandish bullshit right, pops

What I've told you is going to happen has nothing to do with what you've posted in this thread.
Enjoy the Troll Trump Titanic deck theatre, I guess.

The dollar has been rising for 5 years, HPG.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:30 am 
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poptart wrote:
HPG wrote:
You're a little too eager to prove your outlandish bullshit right, pops

What I've told you is going to happen has nothing to do with what you've posted in this thread.
Enjoy the Troll Trump Titanic deck theatre, I guess.

The dollar has been rising for 5 years, HPG.


Idiot.

All markets are forward looking by thier very nature.

They are advancing BECAUSE of exepcted favorable climate under TrollTrumps train.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:45 am 
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Squirrel, dollar to yen value varies based on a variety of influences.

From the beginning of 2012 to the middle of 2015, the dollar rose, rose, and -----> rose some more.

Yay, Obama!!


Idiot.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:55 am 
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You just keep trying, little pal. You'll get one of those straws.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:49 am 
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HPG & mvscal,

I know from posts past that whatever the disagreements between you two, the three of us can reasonably agree that the two of you know more about Business than I do. Having established that I'd like to ask your opinion about interest rates. The Fed has 'em real low: should they be raised? If they are raised is that a good thing for the majority of Americans?

I know search engines are useful for such questions and they will be employed for just that on this very question in the near future. But I'd like to read your takes cuz, well, been reading 'em for years and they do not suck.
Thanks!

BTW mvscal thanks for the recommend about this book:

Image



And then figured I'd follow up with:

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:16 am 
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Interest rates NEED to be raised for the good of my retirement portfolio.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:46 am 
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velocet, I am not an investment guy like mvscal so my opinion is probably at about a 4th grade level on the smarticle scale, but here ya go.

Raising interest rates is not beneficial for most Americans in the short term. Raising interest rates benefits all Americans in the long term.

Low interest rates encourage reckless borrowing, and reckless lending. People whom can't afford to buy a home are buying homes at 3.24% interest, and while home ownership a good thing from a sociology perspective it can be risky from an economic perspective. Prior to the housing crash in 2008 people were overspending their bounds with interest only loans and such. Eventually the bubble bursts. Higher interest rates encourage smarter lending and more cautious borrowing.

In terms of risky lending, I can give you a personal experience. A friend of mine is fairly wealthy and when the price of oil dropped he looked for other places to invest. He's not a big stock market guy; he prefers to see and touch his investments or at least enjoy a guaranteed return. He couldn't earn jack squat with certificates of deposit so he got into floor planning car lots. A floor is basically a revolving line of credit that buys cars to put on a dealership sales floor. He could earn 5% doing this, and that's much better than the 1.56% or whatever he could get with a CD. It is riskier, but the money he puts out has a physical asset attached so he took the risk. A year later he lost $100,000 because the car market took a hit in this area, and everything depreciated faster than the cars sold. If dude could have made 4% on a CD, he would have done that instead of the higher risk investment in flooring cars.

But the big benefit to higher interest rates is that the rich get richer. Progressives like to piss their pants and throw tantrums at the idea of the rich making money, but it's a good thing. What do rich people do with their money? Do they make a papier maché edifice out of it and burn it in the Nevada desert? No. They spend it. The rich spending money is a GOOD THING. But the rich can't spend money if they're not earning money. So let rich people make money. The yacht industry and supercar manufacturers rely on dozens of parts manufacturers whom rely on dozens of refineries and raw materials processors, and they all rely on a huge network of shipping and logistics. In producing a $10,000,000 yacht, approximately $55,000,000 changed hands. What's wrong with that? Nothing.

Every American should dream of earning investment income. That's part of the Murican dream. I certainly dream it, but right now I'm better off buying cheap equipment from places like Iowa and Arizona where the economy is shit, and holding in a rust-free desert climate until the economy comes back. Five years ago I thought I would be mostly retired by now. In five years I hope to be mostly retired. That's how much the Obama economy has impacted my life and business.

Me retiring is a good thing for jobs. If I can retire with a secure income, that opens the door for a young(er) person to replace me. It opens a high paying job to the next generation. Again, all boats are floated when people can borrow at reasonable rates, and earn interest on investments at reasonable rates.

Viva la vita Trump. Let's do this thing!




WAR VELOCET IS BACK

WAR TERRY TEMPEST WILLIAMS CANCER BOOKS

WAR DIOGENES THE DOG WAS A LAME PHILOSOPHER

OUT!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:45 am 
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HighPlainsGrifter wrote:
velocet, I am not an investment guy like mvscal so my opinion is probably at about a 4th grade level on the smarticle scale, but here ya go.


Yeah but you're talking to a guy on the preschool level of biz acumen, so thanks for the reply.
I've read some broad outlines of economics like Heilbronner's The Worldly Philosophers etc but the finer points... well you helped in one post. Inquiry begins with vague, unrefined questions and that's ok as long as they work their way into better, more precise queries.

Quote:
Raising interest rates is not beneficial for most Americans in the short term. Raising interest rates benefits all Americans in the long term.

Low interest rates encourage reckless borrowing, and reckless lending. People whom can't afford to buy a home are buying homes at 3.24% interest, and while home ownership a good thing from a sociology perspective it can be risky from an economic perspective. Prior to the housing crash in 2008 people were overspending their bounds with interest only loans and such. Eventually the bubble bursts. Higher interest rates encourage smarter lending and more cautious borrowing.

In terms of risky lending, I can give you a personal experience. A friend of mine is fairly wealthy and when the price of oil dropped he looked for other places to invest. He's not a big stock market guy; he prefers to see and touch his investments or at least enjoy a guaranteed return. He couldn't earn jack squat with certificates of deposit so he got into floor planning car lots. A floor is basically a revolving line of credit that buys cars to put on a dealership sales floor. He could earn 5% doing this, and that's much better than the 1.56% or whatever he could get with a CD. It is riskier, but the money he puts out has a physical asset attached so he took the risk. A year later he lost $100,000 because the car market took a hit in this area, and everything depreciated faster than the cars sold. If dude could have made 4% on a CD, he would have done that instead of the higher risk investment in flooring cars.

But the big benefit to higher interest rates is that the rich get richer. Progressives like to piss their pants and throw tantrums at the idea of the rich making money, but it's a good thing. What do rich people do with their money? Do they make a papier maché edifice out of it and burn it in the Nevada desert? No. They spend it. The rich spending money is a GOOD THING. But the rich can't spend money if they're not earning money. So let rich people make money. The yacht industry and supercar manufacturers rely on dozens of parts manufacturers whom rely on dozens of refineries and raw materials processors, and they all rely on a huge network of shipping and logistics. In producing a $10,000,000 yacht, approximately $55,000,000 changed hands. What's wrong with that? Nothing.

Every American should dream of earning investment income. That's part of the Murican dream. I certainly dream it, but right now I'm better off buying cheap equipment from places like Iowa and Arizona where the economy is shit, and holding in a rust-free desert climate until the economy comes back. Five years ago I thought I would be mostly retired by now. In five years I hope to be mostly retired. That's how much the Obama economy has impacted my life and business.

Me retiring is a good thing for jobs. If I can retire with a secure income, that opens the door for a young(er) person to replace me. It opens a high paying job to the next generation. Again, all boats are floated when people can borrow at reasonable rates, and earn interest on investments at reasonable rates.

Viva la vita Trump. Let's do this thing!


A fine post, quite the clinic in quality messageboarding. I get from this that there is an interest rate *happy medium*. And you did well to explain to me why. You threw that down with a quickness as well, which proves my point that you know what the frig you're talking about. Incidentally that is also the measure whereby a number of us through the years came to the conclusion that mvscal may have leafed through a history book at least once (compliment by way of massive understatement). Watching a thread unfold back in the day in real time and he's going at it with someone brave or stupid enough to challenge his mastery of the subject was a thing to see. You knew by way of time between replies that the guy wasn't going full google; no, he knows that stuff cold.
Which is why I asked him a couple of years ago for a recommendation about the Eastern Front in WWI, it being the 100th anniversary of the beginning of that ridiculous slaughter. I know how to find books about things but now and then I like to ask of someone who's probably been down that road.


Quote:
WAR VELOCET IS BACK

WAR TERRY TEMPEST WILLIAMS CANCER BOOKS

WAR DIOGENES THE DOG WAS A LAME PHILOSOPHER

OUT!


You're too kind. And really, the respect should be shown to those who, like you and mvscal, and poptart, JSC810, Russ, DesMike316, Martyred and brutally efficient trolls like pr0n and spunkrag and tinfoil ted. Because it is you who have the time and inclination to keep these boards alive and rackable.

Uh, perhaps you don't recall, but last time I was here there was a little something that didn't sit well with you concerning my 180 posts in that span. You were on to something... a little bit. See, my read is that you were looking forward to me employing what it is I have in terms smack ability. Well, you were correct in that what you remember of me in days gone by I WAS NOT SHOWING.

But it is the WHY that escaped you.
I was hanging out being nice. Not a good look from someone you know has made certain citizens melt the fuck down and even some to disappear after an encounter with me entirely. OH and I should mention that as well as you do have a handle on my past I believe that you even yet do not know everything.

SO ANYWAY I had set as my program for hanging out on this board peaceful interaction for two reasons:

1. Having some fukkin' respect for those who maintain these boards. I'm very read more post less and as such a part-timer and in terms of that respect it would be really against my grain to smack if I'm not going to be around long enough to be a steady part of the mix. Anything less is hit and run and that's not me.

2. Please observe my registration date. I was here for the very first opening of the board. I realize that the place went through a reboot and everyone including Russ had to re-register. I did so too. I know I may have had ~15 posts here after re-registering but then when I went to log in in 2014 I realized my account had been wiped. WHY it was deleted is a bit of a mystery because I'm sure I didn't break any rules or any thing like that soooooo...

My mindset about posting here has pretty much been that whatever I'm typing now could be my last post. Not paranoia, just truth.

You see why I haven't gone to lengths to get into it with anyone?


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:43 am 
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Why Tea wrote:
Pretty much what HPG said.

I have a client who owner finances mobile homes. Mostly to border jumpers.

...

I knew a guy that my grandfather was friends with who did the same thing with cars. Sold them to mexicans requiring weekly cash payments and when they missed a payment, repo and resell.

These guys are anti-border-wall people, I would assume.

Can't wait for the five page spread in Huffpo about these guys titled: Lifelong Texas Republicans to Trump: DO NOT BUILD THAT WALL!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:05 pm 
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velocet wrote:
HPG & mvscal,

I know from posts past that whatever the disagreements between you two, the three of us can reasonably agree that the two of you know more about Business than I do. Having established that I'd like to ask your opinion about interest rates. The Fed has 'em real low: should they be raised? If they are raised is that a good thing for the majority of Americans?



The Fed kinda has a tiger by the tail. Simple math dictates that raising the rate on $20 trillion in debt will rip through our tax revenue like stage 4 ass cancer. We paid something like $230 billion in debt service last year and that number is expected to quadruple over the next ten years as interest rates rise.

The prediction? Pain. I don't see any way around it, though. It's time to 'eat our peas.' Our debt boggles the mind. $20 trillion dollars. Just roll that around in your head for awhile. Can't really grow your way out of it. Can't really tax your way out of it. What the fuck are we supposed to do? I don't see any other way. Bond holders are going to have to take a haircut. How big and how to make it pass Constitutional muster is another problem.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:28 pm 
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I didn't see that angle of the matter coming at all. Glad I asked.

One other issue: you answered a question that is politically fair game in a totally analytically non-partisan manner without being prompted to do so. Which proves you are not a mere boiler plate talking points mouthpiece, in case anyone ever wished to tag you with that (and yeah I've seen that charge leveled at you back when).

Which means 'bode mvscal.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:55 pm 
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I don't see the debt getting paid down in the next 4 years. I think that is too much to ask. 20 trillion is a whole helluva bunch, and consider where we are right now. Federal tax revenue is breaking record after record, but federal spending has outpaced revenue every quarter for the past 8 years. Spending has not matched income even once in 7.75 years. It would be one thing if Obama was handing over a long history of balanced budgets. But Trump & Company need to stop the bleeding before paying down debt can become a topic of discussion.

The last report I read said Q32016 the fed govt collected a new record amount of revenue, and still outspent by 240 Billion. An article I read today was all kinds of doom and gloom ohnoes about Trump's tax cuts costing 2.4T over 10 years. That's 240B per year. 370 economists are panicked about 240B a year under Trump, but they don't voice a single concern over 260B PER QUARTER under Obama. Fukken politics.

I will be happy if we can apply direct pressure on the severed artery of habitual money printing and stop the bleeding over the next 2 years. By year 3 I would like to see the economy growing at 4%, and see major cuts in federal spending. If Trump gets a second term those 4 years should focus on paying down the debt.

None of this escapes the Pain mvscal talked about. 104.8% debt to GDP will always have consequences. Just ask Italy and Greece.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:19 am 
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Meanwhile, in The Netherlands: http://www.thehagueonline.com/news/2016/11/28/seasons-greetings-dutch-government-announces-e4-3billion-windfall
Quote:
St Nicholas has paid a visit to the Dutch government: finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem has announced an extra €4.3billion in the national coffers thanks to higher-than-predicted corporation tax, income tax and VAT payments. The NOS reports on Friday afternoon that businesses and individuals have handed over more tax than expected, while the sale of 65 million shares in ABN Amro has also raised €1.3 billion.

There will be no windfall through tax breaks, though: the revenue largely means the Dutch deficit is decreasing faster than expected. The budget predicted it would be 1.1% but it is currently 0.4%. Dijsselbloem said: ‘That means we have some buffers in case the economy takes a turn for the worse.’ Prime minister Mark Rutte said cancelling the Netherlands’ €450 billion debt is the priority. ‘It’s not the case that a fleet laden with gold bullion has sailed back in,’ he said. ‘The national debt must be paid back entirely by future generations.’


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